供需矛盾暫不突出,需求仍有韌性,節(jié)前鋼價走勢明朗！
發(fā)布時間：2024-09-20 22:27
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊9月20日消息:【宏觀信息】1.中國人民銀行授權全國銀行間同業(yè)拆借中心公布，2024年9月20日貸款市場報價利率（LPR）為：1年期LPR為3.35%，5年期以上LPR為3.85%。1年期和5年期均維持不變。2.【財政部：1—8月全國一般公共預算收入同比下降2.6%】 財政部數(shù)據顯示，1—8月，全國一般公共預算收入147776億元，同比下降2.6%，印花稅2233億元，同比下降23.1%。其中，證券交易印花稅653億元，同比下降55.5%。土地和房地產相關稅收中，房產稅2967億元，同比增長20.1%；土地增值稅3632億元，同比下降8.7%。1—8月，全國一般公共預算支出173898億元，同比增長1.5%?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：隨著焦炭首輪提漲落地，焦企利潤稍有修復，而近期原料端焦煤競拍市場成交有所好轉，部分焦企因虧損有減產現(xiàn)象，且臨近國慶假期，下游鋼廠及中間投機貿易商采購積極性增加，焦企出貨節(jié)奏加快，焦炭供應仍有收緊預期。需求方面，鋼廠開始陸續(xù)復產，對焦炭剛需回升，且部分貿易商積極采購分流貨源，廠內焦炭庫存多有回落，部分鋼廠補庫節(jié)奏加快。預計短期內焦炭市場穩(wěn)中趨強運行。2.鐵礦石：降息影響、高爐復產以及節(jié)前補庫預期支撐下，短期料礦價偏強為主。但需求仍弱，以及鐵礦供應端減量不足，而鋼企維持低庫存，采購積極性偏低影響下，上方反彈空間有限?？傮w上經濟下行的擔憂以及鐵水總量下降，參與者心態(tài)難以提振，市場流通受限，大趨勢礦價仍以下行看待?！句搹S調價】：1.9月20日漣鋼建材出廠價格上調20元（噸價，下同）：現(xiàn)HRB400E材質Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導價執(zhí)行3260元/噸；上述價格自2024年9月20日起執(zhí)行。2.9月20日湘鋼建材出廠價格上調20元（噸價，下同）：1、HRB400E材質18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導價執(zhí)行3250元/噸；2、HRB400E材質8-10mm盤螺出廠指導價執(zhí)行3420元/噸；3、HPB300材質8-10mm高線出廠指導價執(zhí)行3470元/噸；上述價格自2024年9月20日起執(zhí)行?！?a target="_blank">市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價震蕩偏強運行，漲幅10-30，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3240元/噸較周一漲10，本周美聯(lián)儲超預期降息，提振了市場情緒，投機需求顯現(xiàn)，成交火爆，今隨著期螺震蕩下行，市場情緒不穩(wěn)，五大材周度數(shù)據偏利空，市場高價出貨受限，成交較上一日明顯下滑，據統(tǒng)計今長沙十家大戶出貨7120噸，部分商家成交未有200噸，目前省內螺紋產量小幅增加，建材庫存持續(xù)去化，整體資源不多，假期臨近市場有一定需求，預計短期湖南建材市價堅挺?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南市價偏強運行，現(xiàn)貨市場成交整體一般，成交量增減多受期螺影響，鋼廠庫存在低位，市場庫存持續(xù)下降，本周長沙建材社會庫存20.34萬噸，較上周減少1.55萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存15.96萬噸，盤線4.38萬噸；衡陽3萬噸，婁底3.2萬噸，懷化0.7萬噸，湘潭0.65萬噸。本周鋼廠產能利用率有小幅提升，主要用于生產線材，預計短期供需矛盾暫不突出。【湖南地區(qū)后期預測】：本周兩湖現(xiàn)貨市價偏強運行，漲幅10-30，部分鋼材資源緊缺，市場挺價意愿明顯，鋼廠生產利潤逐漸好轉，復產節(jié)奏稍有加快，然整體產量仍處低位，社會庫存保持下降態(tài)勢，焦炭首輪提漲落地，后期仍有提漲預期，成本端尚有支撐，目前市場觀望情緒較濃，貿易商積極套現(xiàn)，落袋為安。下周為國慶節(jié)前最后一周，部分終端項目存在一定補庫意愿，需求仍有韌性，綜合考慮，預計下周鋼價震蕩偏強，幅度20-50。
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