建筑鋼廠減產(chǎn)力度加大,原料價格回落,鋼價止跌企穩(wěn)？
發(fā)布時間：2024-08-18 22:34
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊8月18日消息:【原料信息】1.焦炭：焦炭第四輪提降全面落地，截止目前累降200-220元/噸。本輪降價后焦企利潤受到擠壓，部分焦企有小幅減產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象。終端消費疲軟，鋼材價格持續(xù)大幅下跌，鋼廠虧損壓力下檢修范圍進一步擴大，對焦炭控量現(xiàn)象增多，鋼廠仍有繼續(xù)打壓原料預(yù)期，加之原料端焦煤價格尚未觸底，焦炭價格缺乏有力支撐，市場參與者多看空后市，預(yù)計短期焦炭市場繼續(xù)偏運行。2.鐵礦石：從鐵礦石基本面數(shù)據(jù)來看，鐵水拐點暫時還未到，下游舊螺紋的去庫還未達到預(yù)期效果，市場仍存低價拋貨的現(xiàn)象，鋼廠仍需進一步減產(chǎn)，對鐵礦石價格抑制作用繼續(xù)加強，另外港口庫存維持1.5億多噸的水平難以改善，從以往相同庫存水平下所對應(yīng)的鐵礦石價格來看當(dāng)前價位仍舊偏高，未來下跌的空間尚在?！?a target="_blank">市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周盤面震蕩偏弱，跌幅100-120，長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3020元/噸較周一跌100，現(xiàn)貨市場螺紋各個規(guī)格仍需加價。成交方面，本周市場投機需求略有透支，終端按需采購，整體成交日環(huán)比減少，且多以低位成交為主，據(jù)了解，二三線城市大戶平時成交量基本在100-300噸。目前市場建筑鋼材投放量小幅下降，庫存延續(xù)弱勢下降趨勢。原料端支撐走弱，預(yù)計短期湖南建材市價上漲動力不足?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚?表2 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南市價偏弱運行，本周低價頻出現(xiàn)貨報價混亂，商家議價出貨，市場持續(xù)去庫，庫存方面，長沙建材社會庫存29.82萬噸，較上周減少0.63萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存23.08萬噸，盤線6.74萬噸；衡陽3.2萬噸，婁底3萬噸，懷化1.3萬噸，湘潭0.5萬噸。市場仍處于供需兩弱狀態(tài)，基本面有待改善，貿(mào)易商信心缺乏，降庫意愿較強。省內(nèi)鋼廠減產(chǎn)力度加強，主要流通鋼廠供應(yīng)量略有下降，預(yù)計短期庫存仍會下降。【湖南廢鋼】據(jù)了解湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.49萬噸/天，目前市場悲觀情緒不減，考慮到當(dāng)前鋼廠的利潤薄弱，部分鋼廠調(diào)整了生產(chǎn)計劃，使用廢鋼意愿亦有所降低，供需雙弱的情形下，廢鋼支撐力差。若盤面無好轉(zhuǎn)，廢鋼可能繼續(xù)承壓，預(yù)計短期本地廢鋼仍偏弱運行。【湖南地區(qū)短期預(yù)測】：本周市價偏弱運行，現(xiàn)貨跌幅偏大，目前湖南省內(nèi)鋼廠螺紋鋼周度產(chǎn)量為1.2萬噸，產(chǎn)能利用率較低，鋼廠基本無廠庫。市場庫存持續(xù)下降，商家多以出貨為主，然長期的跌價導(dǎo)致市場信心受挫，低價資源頻出且低價未能換來銷量，目前處于新舊國標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)換過渡期間，貿(mào)易商去舊標(biāo)意愿較強，再加上原材料價格回落，成本端存在一定負(fù)反饋，從技術(shù)面看，盤面走勢仍弱，綜合考慮，預(yù)計下周鋼價震蕩偏弱，幅度20-30。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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