國內會議預期以及海外大選擾動市場情緒,基本面矛盾不大,后期鋼價還能漲一波？
發(fā)布時間：2024-10-30 18:01
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊10月30日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【國家發(fā)改委、工信部等六部門發(fā)布關于大力實施可再生能源替代行動的指導意見】意見提到，“十四五”重點領域可再生能源替代取得積極進展，2025年全國可再生能源消費量達到11億噸標煤以上。“十五五”各領域優(yōu)先利用可再生能源的生產生活方式基本形成，2030年全國可再生能源消費量達到15億噸標煤以上，有力支撐實現(xiàn)2030年碳達峰目標?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：前期部分鋼廠積極補庫，廠內焦炭庫存已提至合理水平，對焦炭采購略有放緩，但當前焦企廠內焦炭庫存整體仍偏低，暫無明顯庫存壓力。需求方面，宏觀發(fā)力帶動鋼材價格走強，鋼廠利潤好轉，生產積極性不減，焦炭剛需仍存，然考慮到鋼材市場即將度過旺季，部分高庫存鋼廠對焦炭采購多偏謹。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨震蕩偏弱運行，市場交投氛圍一般，貿易商集港仍偏謹慎。預計短期焦炭市場暫穩(wěn)觀望。2.鐵礦石：鐵礦石整個走勢維持寬幅波動，伴隨國內外重要會議的臨近，市場仍在焦急等待會議的內容結果，在也正是在此階段側面小道消息容易影響市場的整體情緒，當前階段基本面的影響作用已經相對較弱，宏觀預期之間的博弈開始占據主導，影響價格的邏輯可能會從股票市場開始進而傳導至大宗商品價格上。短期來看的話，市場震蕩期預計將會繼續(xù)維持，整體情緒還是處于觀望保守階段，此時的行情不容易顯漲也不容易深跌。3.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地鋼廠持穩(wěn)運行?，F(xiàn)湖南市場主流成交價：重廢6厚2250-2300，鋼筋頭2260-2310，機生鐵2180-2230。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.49萬噸/天，較前一工作日增加0.22萬噸。期螺震蕩，市場恐跌，商戶送貨速度有所加快，省內到貨量整體呈上升趨勢?？紤]到目前成品銷售一般，鋼企利潤縮窄，故調價較謹慎。若后期政策不及預期，不排除再次壓價的可能，因此，短期來看，預計本地廢鋼主穩(wěn)，個別按需調整。【鋼廠調價】：1.10月30日漣鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導價執(zhí)行3610元/噸,上述價格自2024年10月30日起執(zhí)行。2.10月30日湘鋼建材出廠價格下調20元（噸價，下同）,1、HRB400E材質18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導價執(zhí)行3560元/噸,2、HRB400E材質8-10mm盤螺出廠指導價執(zhí)行3750元/噸,3、HPB300材質8-10mm高線出廠指導價執(zhí)行3760元/噸,上述價格自2024年10月30日起執(zhí)行。【市場價格變化】：
表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨市價偏弱運行，跌幅30-40，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3540元/噸較周一跌40，本周盤面窄幅震蕩，市場成交平平，螺紋盤螺價差仍有縮小，商家月末存在出貨壓力，市場存在低價資源，據統(tǒng)計今長沙十家大戶出貨7910噸，多數(shù)商家成交300-500噸，也有商家挺價未有成交，宏觀面中央強調要落實存量增量政策，市場存在利好預期，淡季來臨，下游需求有限，預計短期湖南建材市價上漲空間有限。【市場庫存變化】：表2 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南市價偏弱運行，現(xiàn)貨市場成交量稍顯一般，XG日產1000噸，LG日產3000噸，鋼廠產能利用率較上周持平，各城市社會庫存漲跌不一，長沙建材社會庫存16.58萬噸，較上周減少0.26萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存11.65萬噸，盤線4.93萬噸；衡陽1萬噸減0.2萬噸，婁底4.7萬噸增0.2萬噸，懷化2萬噸增0.2萬噸，湘潭0.46萬噸增0.01萬噸。目前來看，市場消化偏緩，資源抵運不多，預計短期供需矛盾不會進一步擴大?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預測】：目前現(xiàn)貨市場成交整體偏弱，商家出貨為主，淡季來臨下游剛需有限，社會庫存不高，成本支撐尚在，鋼廠產能利用率維持中位，供需矛盾不大，部分城市資源到貨少，規(guī)格缺少現(xiàn)象已現(xiàn)，現(xiàn)貨價格受盤面影響較大，近期國內會議預期和海外大選或將影響盤面波動，綜合考慮，預計短期鋼價震蕩偏強，幅度40-60。 免責聲明：以上內容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點結論和建議可供參考，不構成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內容所引致的一切損失負責任，客戶需自行承擔全部風險。 1備注：數(shù)據僅供參考，不作為投資依據。
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