廠庫(kù)增社庫(kù)減,市場(chǎng)關(guān)注事件尚在發(fā)酵,短期鋼價(jià)上漲空間有限？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-10-25 17:34
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊10月25日消息:【宏觀信息】【中鋼協(xié)：前三季度重點(diǎn)統(tǒng)計(jì)鋼鐵企業(yè)利潤(rùn)總額同比下降56.39%】中國(guó)鋼鐵工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)25日舉辦三季度信息發(fā)布會(huì)。據(jù)介紹，前三季度，重點(diǎn)統(tǒng)計(jì)鋼鐵企業(yè)累計(jì)營(yíng)業(yè)收入4.54萬(wàn)億元，同比下降6.87%；營(yíng)業(yè)成本為4.31萬(wàn)億元，同比下降6.14%；利潤(rùn)總額289.77億元，同比下降56.39%；平均利潤(rùn)率為0.64%，同比下降0.72個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。截至9月末，重點(diǎn)統(tǒng)計(jì)鋼鐵企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率62.91%，同比上升0.75個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。【原料信息】1.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地市場(chǎng)主穩(wěn)個(gè)調(diào)。今期現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)止跌反彈，廢鋼市場(chǎng)心態(tài)好轉(zhuǎn)，加之外圍省市逐漸拉漲，省內(nèi)看漲情緒漸起，出貨開(kāi)始放緩。目前來(lái)看，省內(nèi)鋼企觀望情緒較濃，調(diào)價(jià)謹(jǐn)慎，預(yù)計(jì)短期本地價(jià)格難有太大變動(dòng)，仍將維持主穩(wěn)個(gè)調(diào)走勢(shì)。今本地湖北省共16家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為2.85萬(wàn)噸/天，環(huán)比前一工作日增加0.11萬(wàn)噸。目前主流市場(chǎng)價(jià)鋼筋切粒2400-2450元/噸，6-10厚鋼板合格料清一色2250-2350元/噸個(gè)高，6-10厚重廢合格料2200-2300元/噸，10厚以上重廢合格料2300-2350，6-10厚重廢毛料2150-2250，清一色冷熱軋白鐵2250-2350元/噸，2-4厚剪切料2030-2080元/噸，鋼筋坨子2230-2280元/噸，僅供參考。2.鐵礦石：今日鐵礦石上漲主要是由于A股市場(chǎng)炒多熱度重新點(diǎn)燃，帶動(dòng)了商品價(jià)格的回升。但是據(jù)了解這次的炒作也屬于正常的行情，前期個(gè)別板塊前期下跌后有補(bǔ)漲的需求，其持續(xù)性還是有待驗(yàn)證。產(chǎn)業(yè)層面鐵礦石數(shù)據(jù)整體偏中性。鐵水產(chǎn)量上升幅度縮窄，港口庫(kù)存幅波動(dòng)維持1.6億大關(guān)口。短期來(lái)看，市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的點(diǎn)仍舊偏重于宏觀事件所帶來(lái)的影響，產(chǎn)業(yè)層面鋼材基本面有走弱趨勢(shì)，鐵水產(chǎn)量上升空間也逐步收窄，鐵水恐不久將要見(jiàn)頂，整體產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)面偏空些，鐵礦石價(jià)格短期預(yù)計(jì)將會(huì)繼續(xù)持續(xù)寬幅波動(dòng)的行情，期貨主力價(jià)格或?qū)⒃?50-790波動(dòng)，普氏指數(shù)參考98-101美元?！?a target="_blank">市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】：
表1 武漢市場(chǎng)建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周武漢建筑鋼材價(jià)格震蕩偏弱運(yùn)行，跌幅30-60，武漢鄂鋼庫(kù)發(fā)螺紋在3380-3420，本周初期螺未有起色，下游觀望居多，詢價(jià)寥寥，今期螺持紅震蕩，市場(chǎng)成交好轉(zhuǎn)，目前省內(nèi)建筑鋼材生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，螺紋鋼產(chǎn)能利用率50%，線盤(pán)產(chǎn)能利用率30%，整體產(chǎn)能利用利用率處于中低位，然下游實(shí)際需求有限，省內(nèi)鋼廠廠庫(kù)仍有小幅增加，據(jù)了解EG廠庫(kù)較上周增加2千噸，今市價(jià)小幅上調(diào)10-20，多受盤(pán)面影響，目前宏觀預(yù)期尚存，焦炭仍有下降預(yù)期。預(yù)計(jì)短期市場(chǎng)價(jià)格上漲空間有限?！臼袌?chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：
表2 武漢建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）本周武漢建材庫(kù)存仍有小幅下降，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)本周武漢建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存18.36萬(wàn)噸，較上周減少2.28萬(wàn)噸，其中螺紋鋼庫(kù)存14.72萬(wàn)噸，盤(pán)線3.64萬(wàn)噸；目前部分工地反饋第四季度趕工計(jì)劃推遲，需求量增長(zhǎng)空間有限，消費(fèi)恢復(fù)進(jìn)度緩慢，本周現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)日成交整體一般，預(yù)計(jì)短期庫(kù)存去化放緩?！竞钡貐^(qū)短期預(yù)測(cè)】：現(xiàn)焦炭首輪提降，仍有兩輪下降預(yù)期，原料端支撐有限，鋼廠受利潤(rùn)影響，生產(chǎn)積極性尚可，然本周期螺低位震蕩，市場(chǎng)投機(jī)減少，商家出貨放緩。市場(chǎng)較為關(guān)注的美國(guó)大選、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息以及國(guó)內(nèi)重要會(huì)議的召開(kāi)尚有段時(shí)間。月末市場(chǎng)存在出貨壓力，綜合考慮現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格上漲空間有限，預(yù)計(jì)下周市價(jià)或震蕩偏強(qiáng)，幅度20-40。 免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開(kāi)資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買(mǎi)賣(mài)出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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