庫存加速去化,鋼廠利潤有所修復(fù),下月鋼價開啟漲價模式？
發(fā)布時間：2024-08-30 20:37
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊8月30日消息:【原料信息】1.焦炭：隨著河北、山東地區(qū)主流鋼廠對焦炭采購價進行下調(diào)，降幅50-55元/噸，焦炭第七輪降價全面落地。供應(yīng)方面，多數(shù)焦企維持之前限產(chǎn)力度，隨著七輪降價落地，貿(mào)易商拿貨積極性有所上升，原料端焦煤市場情緒逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)，焦炭成本支撐加強，市場有傳下周提漲消息。下游鋼廠多按需采購，接貨積極性不高，高爐減產(chǎn)檢修現(xiàn)象仍存，鐵水依舊低位運行，預(yù)計短期焦炭市場弱穩(wěn)運行。2.鐵礦石：從鐵礦石本周基本面的數(shù)據(jù)來看，自身利空因素仍在不斷加強，尤其是鐵水產(chǎn)量已滑落至220的水平，而當(dāng)前的礦價與鐵水產(chǎn)量明顯不匹，仍表現(xiàn)為估值相對偏高。雖然市場上已經(jīng)開始對9月份鐵水產(chǎn)量回升展開了相關(guān)的預(yù)期，但是從外部機構(gòu)的調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)來看9月鐵水初步統(tǒng)計日均產(chǎn)量與8月相比變化不大，甚至今日市場仍有鋼廠傳出檢修計劃，對于后續(xù)金九銀十的旺季預(yù)期則是需要打上一個問好了，市場情緒午后明顯走弱，短期來看螺紋以及焦炭后續(xù)反彈動力相對較強，鐵礦石可能會與其形成共振反彈。【鋼廠調(diào)價】：1.8月30日湘鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn),1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3210元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3370元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3410元/噸,上述價格自2024年8月30日起執(zhí)行。 2.8月30日漣鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn),現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3270元/噸,上述價格自2024年8月30日起執(zhí)行?！?a target="_blank">市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價震蕩偏強運行，漲幅60-80，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3160元/噸較周一漲60，成交數(shù)據(jù)在連日反彈中有所放緩，市場總體平穩(wěn)運行。據(jù)統(tǒng)計今長沙十家大戶出貨6320噸，長沙個別大戶成交量多在1000-2000噸，也有商家未有出貨，整體成交較月初有所好轉(zhuǎn)，目前省內(nèi)有鋼廠復(fù)產(chǎn)，市場規(guī)格緊缺或有緩解，今伴隨資源抵運，個別稀缺資源價格下調(diào)明顯，隨著部分鋼廠將于九月上旬結(jié)束檢修，市場或?qū)⒆叱龉┬桦p弱狀態(tài)，預(yù)計短期湖南建材市價下跌空間有限。【市場庫存變化】：表2 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）本周湖南市價震蕩偏強運行，鋼廠目前供應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)小幅縮量，成交情況一般，下游需求不及預(yù)期，高價資源出貨受限，目前市場庫存70%已是新標(biāo)資源，社會庫存延續(xù)去化趨勢，本周長沙建材社會庫存28.19萬噸，較上周減少1.05萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存22.46萬噸，盤線5.73萬噸；衡陽3.1萬噸，婁底3萬噸，懷化1.3萬噸，湘潭0.56萬噸。據(jù)了解已有鋼廠開始復(fù)產(chǎn)，市場資源抵運小增，外省資源稀少，隨著旺季到來，預(yù)計市場庫存或會小增?！竞?a target="_blank">廢鋼】昨日至今，本地鋼廠持穩(wěn)運行?，F(xiàn)湖南市場主流成交價：重廢6厚2030-2080，鋼筋頭2150-2200，機生鐵1970-2020。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.27萬噸/天，較前一工作日增加0.17萬噸。今盤面震蕩，商家出貨速度略有加快，省內(nèi)整體到貨量較前兩日增多。據(jù)調(diào)研，現(xiàn)市場上流通貨源較少且本地鋼企用廢需求仍在，這對廢鋼價格暫有支撐。但考慮到目前鋼企虧損面未修復(fù)，成材釋放也不樂觀，因此，鋼廠操作多謹(jǐn)慎，預(yù)計短期本地廢鋼穩(wěn)中個調(diào)運行?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測】：經(jīng)過前期連續(xù)推漲，庫存消化量可觀，市場心態(tài)平穩(wěn)，目前下游新開工基建于建材需求量一般，后續(xù)剛需恢復(fù)程度有待商榷。但目前市場資源處于偏低位置，廠家挺價意識較強，下月資源投放大概率增加，天氣好轉(zhuǎn)，需求必然有一定釋放，焦炭第七輪提降全面落地，原料端支撐有限，宏觀面偏暖，綜合考慮，預(yù)計下月市價震蕩偏強運行。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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