湖南地區(qū)供需矛盾小幅擴(kuò)大,下周鋼價(jià)走勢(shì)明朗？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2025-02-14 17:52
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊2月14日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【中國(guó)機(jī)械工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)：預(yù)計(jì)2025年機(jī)械工業(yè)將繼續(xù)保持平穩(wěn)發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì) 主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)增速預(yù)計(jì)在5.5%左右】 中國(guó)機(jī)械工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)表示，總的來(lái)看，未來(lái)機(jī)械工業(yè)發(fā)展仍然是機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)并存，但機(jī)遇大于挑戰(zhàn)，有利條件強(qiáng)于不利因素。綜合判斷，預(yù)計(jì)2025年機(jī)械工業(yè)將繼續(xù)保持平穩(wěn)發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)，持續(xù)發(fā)揮國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)重要引擎的作用，主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)增速預(yù)計(jì)在5.5%左右，對(duì)外貿(mào)易保持基本穩(wěn)定?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.鐵礦：當(dāng)前鐵礦石的運(yùn)行區(qū)間相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，而對(duì)礦價(jià)造成波動(dòng)的主要在于產(chǎn)業(yè)端的擾動(dòng)，今日市場(chǎng)傳澳洲颶風(fēng)事件，鐵礦石上午開(kāi)盤后一路呈現(xiàn)出上漲的趨勢(shì)，并且根據(jù)相關(guān)報(bào)道此次影響對(duì)礦石的發(fā)運(yùn)確實(shí)會(huì)形成較大的障礙，而午后經(jīng)過(guò)情緒的發(fā)酵后部分資金有所離場(chǎng)，價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了明顯的回落。短期來(lái)看，當(dāng)前產(chǎn)業(yè)端的矛盾并不是很突出，在此影響下黑色價(jià)格向上運(yùn)行的驅(qū)動(dòng)力相對(duì)較強(qiáng)，但同時(shí)也需要注意美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的動(dòng)作，近期美國(guó)方面CPI以及核心CPI數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)較好，對(duì)降息預(yù)期可能形成重創(chuàng)，因此鐵礦石向上的空間也可能會(huì)較為有限2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢(shì)的因素有：1、螺紋期貨繼續(xù)持綠下行，美征收鋼鐵關(guān)稅持續(xù)發(fā)酵，市預(yù)期看空；2、焦炭下周提降，廢鋼性價(jià)比下滑；3、近期鋼企利潤(rùn)下滑，且電爐春節(jié)期間停產(chǎn)不停收，短期補(bǔ)庫(kù)需求不強(qiáng)；4、貨場(chǎng)集中復(fù)工，市場(chǎng)情緒引導(dǎo)下，加快出清剩余庫(kù)存。綜合來(lái)看，受美加征關(guān)稅影響，打壓前期廢鋼需求上漲帶來(lái)的漲價(jià)勢(shì)頭，各地鋼企已開(kāi)始試探性下調(diào)，目前鋼坯暫穩(wěn)，且部分高爐庫(kù)存水平偏低，因此暫無(wú)大跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?？紤]到后續(xù)焦炭持續(xù)提降，廢鋼性價(jià)比下滑，鋼企有意順勢(shì)壓價(jià)，正月十五過(guò)后將有一段持續(xù)時(shí)間的偏弱行情，短期暫無(wú)明顯強(qiáng)力支撐，預(yù)計(jì)近期全國(guó)廢鋼多窄幅偏弱運(yùn)行。【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南地區(qū)市場(chǎng)螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南市價(jià)下跌60-80，商家陸續(xù)開(kāi)工，下游復(fù)工率偏低，市場(chǎng)交投不暢，加之關(guān)稅事件的發(fā)酵，期螺持續(xù)下行，部分有庫(kù)存壓力商家降價(jià)出貨，市場(chǎng)底部?jī)r(jià)格松動(dòng)，成交多集中在低位，鋼廠多是不飽和生產(chǎn)，個(gè)別鋼廠本周又停產(chǎn)一條產(chǎn)線，市場(chǎng)部分緊缺資源依舊高價(jià)，成交受阻，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶成交量6560噸，商家成交不一，有商家未曾出貨，也有大戶成交1千多噸，現(xiàn)下游需求釋放較緩，預(yù)計(jì)下周鋼價(jià)難有上行空間?！臼袌?chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 湖南地區(qū)建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存較節(jié)前是有明顯增加的，市場(chǎng)成交不及預(yù)期，商家去庫(kù)偏緩，本周長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存23.53萬(wàn)噸，衡陽(yáng)3.4萬(wàn)噸，懷化3萬(wàn)噸，婁底5.5萬(wàn)噸，湘潭0.9萬(wàn)噸，現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)信心不足，鋼廠生產(chǎn)不積極，商家去庫(kù)為主，然國(guó)內(nèi)政策力度有待觀望，利好預(yù)期集中在3月初的兩會(huì)，下游工地陸續(xù)復(fù)工，投機(jī)需求偏弱，原料端支撐有限，焦炭開(kāi)啟第九輪提降，預(yù)計(jì)下周湖南市場(chǎng)社會(huì)庫(kù)存小增。【湖南地區(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：本周市場(chǎng)價(jià)格受盤面影響偏弱運(yùn)行，市場(chǎng)交投偏淡，工地陸續(xù)開(kāi)工，下游需求小幅增長(zhǎng)，但采貨頻率較為謹(jǐn)慎，觀望情緒仍較多，商家成交不暢，導(dǎo)致供需之間矛盾小幅擴(kuò)大，市場(chǎng)投機(jī)需求走低，部分貿(mào)易商存在一定降庫(kù)避險(xiǎn)情緒，有暗降出貨情況，現(xiàn)政策面利好暫無(wú)，從技術(shù)面看期螺暫未止跌，預(yù)計(jì)下周市價(jià)偏弱運(yùn)行。 免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開(kāi)資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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