鋼廠檢修減產(chǎn)增多,冬儲暫無意向,短期鋼價難漲？
發(fā)布時間：2024-11-27 21:46
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊11月27日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【美國加征關(guān)稅可能只會使歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長下降0.2%】標普全球評級在給投資者的一份報告中寫道，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟可能能夠消化對美出口關(guān)稅提高的影響。特朗普此前警告說，他將對進口商品征收10%的關(guān)稅，這一政策將影響歐洲出口商，而美國是歐洲出口商最重要的市場。但根據(jù)標普的估計，這種情況可能只會使歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長下降0.2%，而德國受到的打擊比其他經(jīng)濟體更嚴重?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：產(chǎn)地部分區(qū)域焦企出貨壓力增加，廠內(nèi)少量焦炭庫存堆積，隨著原料端焦煤價格持續(xù)回落，焦企降價后仍維持一定利潤，開工仍保持高位，焦炭供應(yīng)仍顯寬松，同時焦炭成本端支撐力度偏弱，市場仍有看降情緒。需求方面，多地進入雨雪天氣，后期道路運輸受限，鋼廠原料到貨或受到一定影響，部分鋼廠采購積極性期有所提升，焦炭剛需尚可。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨暫穩(wěn)運行，兩港庫存小幅下滑，市場交投氛圍一般。預計短期內(nèi)焦炭市場弱穩(wěn)運行。2.鐵礦石：宏觀方面馬上進入12月，對于月初的政治局會議市場期待性仍舊較高，按今年臨近會議的行情趨勢，再加上當下人民幣出現(xiàn)貶值趨勢，對大宗商品價格上支撐增強。另外從產(chǎn)業(yè)端來看，當前的時間節(jié)點臨近冬儲，各大鋼廠陸續(xù)出臺冬儲政策，鐵礦石的補庫行動也同步展開，剛需的韌性也支撐著礦價。短期來看，宏觀和產(chǎn)業(yè)層面所釋放的信號有所回暖，黑色系價格整體驅(qū)動加強，鐵礦石期貨主力價格預計將在780-810運行，普氏指數(shù)參考102-105美元。3.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地鋼廠主穩(wěn)個調(diào)運行，漣鋼部分跌20?，F(xiàn)湖南市場主流成交價：重廢6厚2230-2280，鋼筋頭2240-2290，機生鐵2160-2210。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.99萬噸/天，較前一工作日增加0.32萬噸。今期螺震蕩運行，市場觀望情緒較濃，隨著周邊部分鋼企的小幅下調(diào)，省內(nèi)個別到貨較多的鋼企也隨之窄幅調(diào)整。目前來看省內(nèi)需求較好，暫無大跌風險，更多的關(guān)注后續(xù)的兩個重要會議。故預計短期本地廢鋼主穩(wěn)個調(diào)運行?！句搹S調(diào)價】：1.11月27日漣鋼建材出廠價格下調(diào)20元（噸價，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導價執(zhí)行3460元/噸,上述價格自2024年11月27日起執(zhí)行。2.11月27日湘鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導價執(zhí)行3420元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導價執(zhí)行3510元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導價執(zhí)行3620元/噸,上述價格自2024年11月27日起執(zhí)行。 【市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）目前本周湖南地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨市價震蕩偏弱，跌幅10-30，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3370元/噸較周一跌30，市場成交不暢，據(jù)了解近幾日商家多數(shù)出貨量在100-300噸，部分經(jīng)銷商甚至只有幾十噸，據(jù)統(tǒng)計今長沙十家大戶出貨6150噸，較上一日縮量，現(xiàn)市場缺乏利好，市場多關(guān)注12月會議，原料端尚有支撐，預計短期湖南建材市價窄幅震蕩?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）今現(xiàn)貨市場成交不佳，XG日產(chǎn)300噸，LG日產(chǎn)0.28萬噸，鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率小幅下調(diào)，鋼廠廠庫不大，市場庫存有小幅增加，長沙建材社會庫存17.23萬噸，較上周增加0.39萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存10.75萬噸，盤線6.48萬噸；衡陽1萬噸增0.1萬噸，婁底3.6萬噸增0.6萬噸，懷化1.6萬噸減0.6萬噸，湘潭0.48萬噸減0.1萬噸，武漢建材社會庫存16.83萬噸，較上周增加0.68萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存12.04萬噸，盤線4.79萬噸。目前來看，下游需求有限，市場庫存仍會增加?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預測】：目前商家多數(shù)未考慮冬儲之事，多數(shù)商家?guī)齑娌桓?，對今年冬儲意向很低，現(xiàn)商家操作謹慎出貨為主，廠家多數(shù)檢修減產(chǎn)，廠內(nèi)庫存偏低，現(xiàn)貨市場下游需求減少，成交受限，產(chǎn)業(yè)自身矛盾不大，政策預期不強，預計短期市場依舊偏弱，幅度10-50。
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