Unexpected Headwinds Keep Commodity Prices Lower for Longer

Wood Mackenzie principal nickel analyst Andrew Mitchell explained that 2015 was worse for nickel from a demand perspective than 2014, and that 2016 looked even poorer from a price perspective, as demand remained lacklustre. In 2015, demand grew by only 0.9%. Mitchell pointed out that there were not as many nickel mine closures in 2015 as originally expected, as miners were able to lower costs – boosted by lower oil prices – and because the nickel price did not quite move low enough for long enough to push higher-cost miners out.

“[Last year] was not that bad, and that’s the bad news,” he said, pointing to only a few of the more expensive sulphide mines shuttering in 2015, while laterite mines were proving their low-cost worth. Prices came increasingly under pressure towards the end of 2015 and global inventories of at least a million tonnes of nickel absorbed any demand increases. The supply overhang was enough to supply the market for half a year.

However, a long-term structural shortage would appear from 2021, when a deficit of about 475 000 t would keep the nickel market reasonably balanced through to 2030. New production would be required to come online during this period, but Mitchell questioned whether there would be any significant new investment before then. To make up the deficit, he expected Chinese investment in Indonesia to account for about 260 000 t of new nickel output in the next decade, while new innovations and investment in the West would account for the balance. However, this would require an incentive price of between $9.50/lb and $10/lb.

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